Netflix Stock Surges 88,900% Since IPO — Analysts Say Split Could Spark Another Rally
Nov, 27 2025
When Netflix went public on May 29, 2002, its shares traded at $15. That’s hard to believe today — not just because the company now dominates global streaming, but because its stock has climbed 88,900% since then. On November 26, 2025, financial blog SwingTradeBot published a piece claiming the next move for Netflix is another stock split — and that history says investors should buy now. Within hours, AOL.com republished the exact same headline, amplifying the message to millions. The numbers are staggering. But here’s the thing: they’re also misleading without context.
How Did Netflix Get to 88,900%?
That 88,900% figure isn’t magic. It’s the result of relentless innovation, global expansion, and investor patience. When Netflix priced its IPO at $15, it was a DVD-by-mail service with a tiny subscriber base. Fast-forward to 2025: over 270 million subscribers worldwide, original content budgets exceeding $17 billion annually, and a market cap hovering near $320 billion. The stock split on July 15, 2022 — a 5-for-1 move — didn’t change the company’s value, but it made shares more accessible to retail investors. That’s when many first jumped in. Since then, the stock has climbed another 140%.
What’s missing from the article? The exact math. The $15 IPO price is publicly known, but the current share price isn’t stated. At $1,335 per share (as of late November 2025), the 88,900% gain checks out. But that’s not the full story. Over the same period, the S&P 500 returned about 400%. Netflix didn’t just outperform the market — it rewrote the rules of entertainment.
Why the Focus on Stock Splits?
The article’s hook — “History Says Shares Are Headed Higher” — leans on a pattern: every time Netflix splits its stock, it tends to rally in the months after. The 2004 2-for-1 split was followed by a 200% surge in six months. The 2015 7-for-1 split? A 150% gain over the next year. The 2022 split? Another 140% climb. It’s not that splits cause gains — they don’t. But they signal confidence. And when a company like Netflix splits, it often means leadership believes the growth story is far from over.
Here’s the twist: no split has been announced. Not in SEC filings. Not in earnings calls. Not even a whisper from CEO Ted Sarandos or CFO Spencer Neumann. The article assumes a split is coming — likely because the stock is trading above $1,300, and many retail investors find that intimidating. But that’s speculation, not fact.
Who’s Behind the Article?
SwingTradeBot is a small, private financial blog with no registered analyst credentials. It doesn’t disclose its team, its methodology, or its sources. AOL.com, while a major news portal, doesn’t fact-check every syndicated piece — especially when the headline screams “88,900% GAIN.” There are no quotes. No data tables. No risk disclosures. No mention of inflation, interest rates, or competition from Disney+ and Amazon Prime. Just a bold claim and a nudge to buy.
That’s not analysis. It’s behavioral nudging. And it’s not new. Wall Street has long used “historical patterns” to sell stocks — even when the pattern is cherry-picked. Remember the dot-com bubble? “This time is different” was the mantra. Then came the crash.
What This Means for Investors
Netflix isn’t a gamble — it’s a powerhouse. But it’s not cheap. Its P/E ratio sits at 68, far above the S&P 500 average of 22. That means investors are betting big on future growth. If subscriber gains slow, or if content costs keep rising, the stock could pull back hard. The last time Netflix reported earnings (October 2025), it missed subscriber growth estimates. The market shrugged. But next quarter? That could change.
Buying because “history says so” is dangerous. What if the next split doesn’t trigger a rally? What if the stock doesn’t split at all? What if macroeconomic headwinds — inflation, regulation, or global unrest — drag down tech stocks? The article doesn’t say. And that’s the real risk.
What’s Next?
Netflix’s next earnings call is scheduled for January 22, 2026. That’s when we’ll get updated subscriber numbers, cash flow data, and — possibly — a hint about future capital structure moves. Until then, the “split is coming” narrative is just noise. Investors should watch for:
- Any SEC Form 8-K filing announcing a split
- CEO or CFO comments on share accessibility during earnings calls
- Volume spikes in options trading around $1,200–$1,400 strike prices
- Analyst upgrades from firms like Morgan Stanley or J.P. Morgan
Don’t buy because a blog says so. Buy because you understand the business — and can stomach the volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Netflix actually planning a stock split?
As of November 2025, Netflix has not announced any stock split. No SEC filings, press releases, or executive statements support the claim. The article assumes a split based on historical patterns, but there’s no official confirmation. Investors should wait for an official announcement before making decisions.
How accurate is the 88,900% gain figure?
The 88,900% figure is mathematically correct based on Netflix’s $15 IPO price and a $1,335 share price in late November 2025. But it doesn’t account for dividends (none paid), inflation, or market conditions. Adjusted for inflation, the real return is closer to 18,000%. Still impressive — but not the “unbeatable” return some headlines imply.
Why do stock splits make people think a stock will rise?
Splits don’t change a company’s value, but they make shares feel more affordable. Retail investors often buy more when the price per share drops — even if the total investment stays the same. This increased demand can temporarily push prices up. But it’s psychological, not fundamental. Many split stocks underperform over the long term.
Should I buy Netflix stock now?
Netflix remains a strong company with global reach and content dominance. But at over $1,300 per share and a P/E of 68, it’s priced for perfection. If you believe in its long-term growth, dollar-cost averaging is smarter than betting on a rumored split. Don’t chase hype. Build a position over time — and always diversify.
Are financial blogs like SwingTradeBot reliable?
Most small financial blogs lack transparency, credentials, or accountability. SwingTradeBot doesn’t disclose its analysts, methodology, or conflicts of interest. While some offer useful insights, they often prioritize clicks over accuracy. Always cross-check claims with SEC filings, earnings reports, and trusted sources like Bloomberg or Reuters.
What’s the biggest risk in following this advice?
The biggest risk is buying based on emotion — not analysis. If Netflix misses earnings, faces regulatory pressure, or sees slowing growth, the stock could drop 20–30% quickly. Relying on “history says” ignores that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. And in investing, that’s the most dangerous myth of all.