Oscar Predictions Surge for Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘One Battle After Another’ Ahead of Release
Sep, 26 2025
Oscar Buzz and Predictions
When the first trailer dropped, the buzz was louder than a theater‑goer’s applause. Oscar predictions have vaulted the film into the top five of eleven categories on Gold Derby, with the Best Picture slot currently sitting at number one. Industry trackers say the film’s blend of gritty political drama and off‑beat humor resonates with both critics and the Academy’s voting bloc.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s turn as Bob Ferguson – a washed‑out counterculture icon battling addiction while hunting for his missing daughter – has been singled out as a potential lead‑actor nomination. Supporting players Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn are also climbing the nomination ladder, thanks to early praise from reviewers who called their performances “raw” and “electrifying.”
The push isn’t just coming from critics. After a Los Angeles preview, Steven Spielberg hosted an impromptu Q&A with Anderson, publicly lauding the film’s daring structure. Spielberg’s endorsement adds weight, as his own clout often influences Academy sentiment during the early voting window.
In the director and adapted screenplay categories, Anderson is already listed as a favorite. If the film takes home Best Picture, it would mark Anderson’s fourth Best Picture nod and his first win after nominations for ‘There Will Be Blood,’ ‘Phantom Thread,’ and ‘Licorice Pizza.’ A win in directing would also be his first, despite previous nods for those same three films.
The Film’s Creative Roots and Cast
Anderson drew heavily from Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel ‘Vineland,’ transplanting its labyrinthine narrative into a modern political landscape. The source material’s satire of American paranoia translates on screen into a fast‑paced thriller that still finds moments for dark comedy. Critics have highlighted how the film “redefines genre boundaries” while staying grounded in a potent social critique.
Beyond DiCaprio, the ensemble includes seasoned veterans and fresh faces. Sean Penn portrays a racist military official whose pursuit of Ferguson adds tension to the chase. Benicio del Toro and Regina Hall deliver smaller yet memorable scenes that flesh out the world’s moral grey zones. Newcomer Chase Infiniti makes a splash in her debut, playing Ferguson’s estranged daughter whose disappearance drives the plot.
Critical reception has been overwhelmingly positive. Rotten Tomatoes sits at a striking 96 % and Metacritic gives the film a 97, positioning it as possibly the best‑reviewed picture of 2025. Reviewers from major outlets praised Anderson’s “ambitious, genre‑bending vision” and described the film as “a razor‑sharp political statement wrapped in blockbuster thrills.”
Box‑office projections are cautiously optimistic. Early screenings suggest strong word‑of‑mouth momentum, and the Oscar buzz could boost opening weekend numbers, especially among voters looking to align their viewing choices with the awards conversation.
As the film rolls out nationwide on September 26, the industry will watch closely how the early accolades translate into actual votes. With star power, a celebrated director, and a script that captures the zeitgeist, ‘One Battle After Another’ is shaping up to be a defining moment for the 2025 awards season.