Buccaneers' Mayfield diagnosed with low-grade shoulder sprain ahead of Cardinals game

When Baker Mayfield limped off the field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Sunday night, November 23, 2025, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ playoff hopes didn’t just take a hit—they took a hard fall. An MRI the next day confirmed what fans feared: a low-grade sprain in his left AC joint. No torn ligaments. No structural damage. Just pain, swelling, and uncertainty. The injury occurred during a late second-quarter drive, after Mayfield had led the Buccaneers to a touchdown, only to return moments later and then collapse again on a deep throw before halftime. He finished the game with his arm in a sling. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, now 6-5 after three straight losses, are staring down a critical stretch—and Mayfield’s availability for their Week 13 showdown with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, November 30, 2025, at 1 p.m. ET in Tampa, could decide everything.

What the MRI Showed—and Didn’t Show

The scan, conducted Monday morning and confirmed by NFL insiders Jeremy Fowler and Ian Rapoport, revealed no fractures, no labrum damage, and no nerve impingement. Just a Grade 1 sprain in the acromioclavicular joint, the little ligament bridge connecting the collarbone to the shoulder blade. It’s the kind of injury that doesn’t require surgery, doesn’t end seasons, and often heals with rest and ice. But here’s the twist: Mayfield is a right-handed quarterback. The sprain is in his non-throwing shoulder. That changes everything.

“It’s not the throwing arm,” said one anonymous team physician familiar with the case. “That’s the good news. He can still throw. The problem is when he’s hit—he can’t absorb the force the way he needs to. That’s what’s keeping him off the field.”

Mayfield, a two-time Pro Bowler (2023, 2024), was visibly wincing after being sacked twice in the third quarter. He stayed in for one more drive but was pulled after a 15-yard scramble ended with him grimacing and clutching his left shoulder. He didn’t return. Backup Teddy Bridgewater, who hasn’t started an NFL game since 2022 with the Miami Dolphins, stepped in and managed the offense decently—but without Mayfield’s arm strength or quick decision-making, the Buccaneers’ offense stalled.

Coach Bowles: “Too Early to Tell”

Head coach Todd Bowles didn’t offer much hope Monday. “Too early to tell,” he said, when asked about Mayfield’s status for Sunday. “We’ll wait for the MRI.” Then, after a pause: “I’m not sure yet if he can play through it.”

That’s the NFL in a sentence. No guarantees. No promises. Just a coach weighing pain tolerance against team survival. Bowles also acknowledged the team’s three-game slide—losses to the Rams, Bills, and Patriots—and didn’t point fingers at the offense, defense, or special teams. “We’re our problem,” he said. “But we’re also our solution.”

It’s a line that sounds like coaching cliché—until you realize the Buccaneers have lost their last three home games. They’ve won the NFC South four years straight. But since winning Super Bowl LV in 2020, they’ve lost three straight home playoff games, including two wild-card exits. This season? They’re not just fighting for a division title. They’re fighting to stay relevant.

The Stakes: A Tied Division and a Crucial Schedule

With a 6-5 record, the Buccaneers are tied with the Carolina Panthers atop the NFC South. Carolina plays the 49ers Monday night, and whoever wins that game will hold the tiebreaker. The Buccaneers and Panthers meet twice in the final four weeks—Week 16 in Carolina and Week 18 back in Tampa. That’s not just a rivalry game. It’s a playoff decider.

Mayfield’s presence changes the math. According to NBC Sports’ analytics, the Buccaneers’ offense scores 8.7 more points per game with Mayfield under center than with Bridgewater. His deep ball, his ability to extend plays, his chemistry with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin—those aren’t just stats. They’re survival tools.

If Mayfield sits, Bridgewater starts. He’s a smart, steady veteran. But he’s 32. He hasn’t thrown more than 25 passes in a game since 2022. He’s not the guy who can carry a team through a four-game stretch in December. And the Cardinals? They’re 5-6 and desperate for a win. Their defense ranks 18th in the league—but they’ve held three of their last four opponents under 20 points.

What’s Next? The Timeline and the Uncertainty

The Buccaneers’ medical staff is treating this as a 7-10 day recovery window. Mayfield could theoretically return by Thursday’s practice if the swelling drops. But NFL teams rarely rush quarterbacks back from shoulder injuries—even low-grade ones—especially when the injury is on the non-throwing side. Why? Because the shoulder takes a beating every time you’re tackled. And Mayfield’s been sacked 32 times this season.

“It’s not about whether he can throw,” said former NFL trainer Mike Reinold. “It’s about whether he can get hit and not make the injury worse. That’s the real question.”

The team has until Friday’s official injury report to declare Mayfield active, questionable, or out. If he’s ruled out, Bridgewater will get the start—and the Buccaneers’ playoff odds drop from 58% to 34%, per FiveThirtyEight’s model.

History’s Shadow: The Bucs’ Playoff Curse

Let’s not forget: the Buccaneers have been here before. In 2021, they won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady. In 2022, they went 9-8 and lost in the wild-card round. In 2023, they were 11-6 and lost at home again. In 2024, they were 12-5—and lost at home again. Four straight division titles. Four straight home playoff exits. The pattern is clear: when the lights get bright, the offense falters. And right now, their offense depends on one man with a sore shoulder.

Mayfield’s career has been a rollercoaster: He was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018. He led the Browns to their first playoff win in 26 years. He’s been traded, benched, and resurrected. Now, in Tampa, he’s the last hope for a franchise that’s built its identity on consistency. But consistency doesn’t survive injuries. Not when the stakes are this high.